Luck — Or Opportunity?

We had yet another example of the imporatance of considering opportunity when creating nick ratings with the August 1 victory of Luck Money in the Majestic Light Stakes at Saratoga. Irish-bred Luck Money was scoring his first stakes victory, although he’d been third to superstar Henrythenavigator in the Coventry Stakes (gr. II) and captured the Goffs Million (endowed with a $2.3 million purse!) last year at 2.

Lucky Money is by an excellent Irish sire, the now-deceased Indian Ridge, out of Dundel, a daughter of Machiavellian, and therein lies the problem for a nicking program that does not have the ability to consider true opportunity. (More…)

Opportunity Knocks

Some recent articles by propents of rival nicking systems have floated the idea that somehow programs that don’t use a database of worldwide stakes winners, and don’t consider true opportunity – in fact they admit they don’t use opportunity at all – can be more accurate than the TrueNicks program that considers true opportunity, and utilizes the comprehensive database of The Jockey Club Information Services. (More…)

Reader Q&A: Cost vs. Quality

Question: My question is whether there a much greater risk factor when considering between two stallions that differ in the fact that one has many proven mares and was a very good performer himself, while the other is a young stallion that is well-bred but has never raced because of an injury, and doesn’t yet have a large number of offspring? The two stallions give a similar nick rating. I have a case like this where I’m trying to make a decision about cost vs quality. I should mention the tried and proven stallion is quite a bit more expensive of course. — Garrie (More…)

Readers Ask: Seeking the Gold/Halo

Q: I was looking for nicks with a mare by Abaginone. Your reports show an A++ for a Seeking the Gold/Halo crossing but all the stakes winners listed are by one sire, Mutakddim, out of Southern Halo mares bred in Argentina. Is this a statistical quirk or a valid basis for generalizing about a Seeking the Gold/Halo nick?

A: Thank you for the question. The calculation for a mare by a son of Seeking the Gold out of mares from the Halo line is (More…)

Golden Daffodil

That under-appreciated Nijinsky II line stallion, Hernando (by Niniski), is having an excellent run with his current crop of three-year-olds, which include the English Oaks (gr. 1) victress Look Here (A+ TrueNick Rating); Casual Conquest (A+), winner of Derrinstown Derby Trial (gr. II) and third in the English Derby (gr. 1); and most recently, on June 24, Indian Daffodil, who took the Prix Daphnis (gr. III), having been second to French Derby (gr. I) winner, Vision d’Etat, on his previous outing. (More…)

A Generation Removed

We are often asked the question on nick ratings — “do they work across multiple generations?” The answer ironically depends on the genuine strength of the affinity between the sire lines in question. Examples of nicks that seem to span generations and withstand the scrutiny of time include Fappiano over (More…)

One Horse Wonders

Looking through some recent results, we noticed that another nicking program had rated Elite Squadron – who took the May 3 Churchill Downs Stakes (gr. II) – as an A++ nick. A cross check with TrueNicks revealed that Elite Squadron is rated D. Naturally, we wondered what could have caused such a discrepancy. (More…)