Luck — Or Opportunity?

We had yet another example of the imporatance of considering opportunity when creating nick ratings with the August 1 victory of Luck Money in the Majestic Light Stakes at Saratoga. Irish-bred Luck Money was scoring his first stakes victory, although he’d been third to superstar Henrythenavigator in the Coventry Stakes (gr. II) and captured the Goffs Million (endowed with a $2.3 million purse!) last year at 2.

Lucky Money is by an excellent Irish sire, the now-deceased Indian Ridge, out of Dundel, a daughter of Machiavellian, and therein lies the problem for a nicking program that does not have the ability to consider true opportunity. (More…)

Opportunity Knocks

Some recent articles by propents of rival nicking systems have floated the idea that somehow programs that don’t use a database of worldwide stakes winners, and don’t consider true opportunity – in fact they admit they don’t use opportunity at all – can be more accurate than the TrueNicks program that considers true opportunity, and utilizes the comprehensive database of The Jockey Club Information Services. (More…)

Reader Q&A: Cost vs. Quality

Question: My question is whether there a much greater risk factor when considering between two stallions that differ in the fact that one has many proven mares and was a very good performer himself, while the other is a young stallion that is well-bred but has never raced because of an injury, and doesn’t yet have a large number of offspring? The two stallions give a similar nick rating. I have a case like this where I’m trying to make a decision about cost vs quality. I should mention the tried and proven stallion is quite a bit more expensive of course. — Garrie (More…)

TrueNicks Joins MarketWatch and Owner-Breeder

Alan Porter recently commented on the newly-announced merger of powerhouse Thoroughbred industry newsletters Owner-Breeder International and TBH MarketWatch.

“Having been publisher of Owner-Breeder International for the last seven years, I’m delighted by the recent merger of the publication with (More…)

Moving Houses… And More

In the upcoming months, TrueNicks has a number of innovations and new products to unveil.

Some will be quite visible while the others more subtle. One of the changes in the latter category will be (More…)

Matt O’Neil Joins TrueNicks as National Sales Manager

TrueNicks is very pleased to announce the addition of well known industry analyst Matt O’Neil as our national sales manager. Matt will be in charge of promoting and managing the products that TrueNicks offers to racehorse owners, breeders, stallion owners and trainers. Following is a news release issued by TrueNicks partner Blood-Horse Publications:

Blood-Horse Publications has hired pedigree analyst Matt O’Neil as the new national sales manager for TrueNicks, a Thoroughbred pedigree statistics and research firm.

O’Neil will be responsible for national and international sales of the TrueNicks pedigree rating products.

(More…)

Readers Ask: Seeking the Gold/Halo

Q: I was looking for nicks with a mare by Abaginone. Your reports show an A++ for a Seeking the Gold/Halo crossing but all the stakes winners listed are by one sire, Mutakddim, out of Southern Halo mares bred in Argentina. Is this a statistical quirk or a valid basis for generalizing about a Seeking the Gold/Halo nick?

A: Thank you for the question. The calculation for a mare by a son of Seeking the Gold out of mares from the Halo line is (More…)