World Wide Class

Keen pedigree observers note that the same patterns often work the world over. This is frequently revealed when running the TrueNicks page on a horse, a report which gives–in addition to a five cross pedigree, Dosage profile, inbreeding, and TrueNicks rating–a list of the five best horses bred on a cross.

A case in point is Malibu Stakes (gr. I) victor Johnny Eves. (More…)

Of Math and Men (and Horses), part II

Things get really tricky for a system when lack of opportunity forces a default to deeper generations for analysis (which happens less frequently with TrueNicks than with hypothetical systems that depend on a much smaller—and problematically incomplete—sample size). (More…)

Case in Point: Kingmambo and Sadler’s Wells

In his first crop, Kingmambo sired El Condor Pasa – a champion in Japan and France – out of a mare by Sadler’s Wells. Kingmambo has gone on to sire seven other stakes winners out of Sadler’s Wells mares, including classic winners Divine Proportions and Virginia Waters and current European juvenile standouts Henrythenavigator and Thewayyouare. Obviously, a great cross. Right?

Not necessarily. (More…)

Of Math and Men (and Horses), part I

In my previous post, I described how my first employment in pedigree research came as a result of querying the validity of some sire line crosses published in an English magazine. Since then, I have harbored the ambition to create a better way of reflecting the success–or otherwise–of sire line crosses. (More…)

In the Beginning

The launch of TrueNicks represents the completion of a full circle regarding my involvement in the Thoroughbred industry.

By age 19 I had completed three years “hands on” experience working at an English stud farm. Around that time, the English magazine Stud & Stable published an article with a grid showing sire line crosses and the percentage of stakes winners each cross had produced that year. As a student of statistics, it struck me that the calculations of these figures made no allowances for opportunity. In those days it would have been nearly impossible to track down all the foals that made up the population, so I did what seemed to be the next best thing. I dug out a copy of The Register of Thoroughbred Stallions – at that stage it would have included just about every sire of consequence in England and Ireland – and counted up how many stallions were recorded and from there calculated the likely percentage of the population represented by each sire line, taking into account hypothetical opportunity. (More…)